China S Response To Pelosi S Visit Is An Indication Of Future Intentions

The dust has yet to settle, with Taiwan holding exercises this week and Beijing announcing more maneuvers are planned, but experts say much can already be gleaned from what China has and hasn’t done so far. China will also learn lessons about its own military capabilities from the drills, which looked more like what an actual strike would look like on the island claimed by Beijing as its own territory, and from the American and Taiwanese response. During the nearly week-long maneuvers that followed Pelosi’s visit in early August, China sailed ships and routinely flew aircraft across the median line in the Taiwan Strait, claiming the de facto boundary did not exist, fired missiles over Taiwan itself and challenged established norms by launching missiles into Japan’s exclusive economic zone. “I think we are in a dangerous period of testing limits and finding out who can achieve escalating dominance in diplomatic, military and economic domains,” said David Chen, an analyst at CENTRA Technology, a US-based consultancy. Pelosi was the highest-ranking member of the US administration to visit Taiwan in 25 years, and her visit came at a particularly sensitive time as Chinese President Xi Jinping prepares to seek a third five-year term as leader of the ruling Communist Party later. This year. Under Xi, China has increasingly asserted that Taiwan must be brought under its control — by force if necessary — and U.S. military officials have said Beijing may seek a military solution within the next few years. Tensions were already high, with China conducting regular military flights near Taiwan and the US regularly passing warships through the Taiwan Strait to emphasize that it is international waters. China accuses the US of encouraging the island’s independence through arms sales and entanglement between US politicians and the island’s government. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying called Pelosi’s visit a “serious provocation” and accused Washington of violating the status quo and “interfering in China’s internal affairs.” “China is not the old China of 120 years ago, and we are not Iraq, Syria or Afghanistan – we will not allow any foreign power to intimidate, suppress or enslave us,” he told reporters in Beijing. “Anyone who wants to do so will be on a collision course with the Great Wall of China forged by 1.4 billion Chinese people.” The US continues to insist it has not deviated from its “one China” policy, recognizing the government in Beijing while allowing informal relations and defense ties with Taipei. China halted its maneuvers until Pelosi left Taiwan and turned back its forces before they approached Taiwan’s coast or territorial airspace, which showed “a modest restraint,” Chen said. But, he noted, another visit to Congress after Pelosi sparked the announcement of more exercises. “We are likely entering a period of regular military demonstrations in and around China’s territorial waters,” he said. “The Chinese Communist Party is also quite capable of creating cross-sector responses, as has been seen in cyberspace. Beyond that, we could see escalating movements in space, in the South China Sea, Africa, the Indian Ocean or the South Pacific.” Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said the scale and coordination of the drills suggest China is looking beyond Taiwan to establish dominance in the western Pacific. This would include control of the East and South China Seas through the Taiwan Strait and the ability to impose a blockade to prevent the US and its allies from helping Taiwan in the event of an attack. Short of an armed conflict, blocking the Taiwan Strait — a major route for global trade — could have major implications for international supply chains at a time when the world is already facing disruptions. In particular, Taiwan is a critical supplier of computer chips to the global economy. While ostensibly a reaction to Pelosi’s visit, it’s clear that China’s drills have been planned for some time, said Mareike Ohlberg, senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund think tank’s Asia Program. “I think they were looking for an opportunity to scale,” he said. “This is not something you prepare after the announcement (of the visit) and then do it so quickly and so easily.” The US held back throughout the maneuvers, keeping an aircraft carrier group and two amphibious assault ships in the area, but not near the island. Taiwan avoided any active countermeasures. Kurt Campbell, the Biden administration’s coordinator for Indo-Pacific affairs, said this week that the US was taking a “calm and decisive” long-term approach that would include continued passage through the Taiwan Straits, supporting Taiwan’s self-defense capabilities and otherwise deepening ties with the island. To that end, the US announced on Thursday that it is starting talks with Taiwan on a broad trade agreement. Campbell said Washington sees China’s actions as “part of an intensive pressure campaign against Taiwan, which is far from over.” “We expect it to continue to unfold in the coming weeks and months,” he said. The US Department of Defense has recognized China’s increasingly capable military, saying it has become a real rival and has already surpassed the US military in some areas, including shipbuilding, and now has the world’s largest navy. The cautious American response to the recent drills seemed calculated to avoid any accidental confrontation that could have escalated the situation, but could also fuel China’s confidence, Ohlberg said. “The basis of China’s thinking is that the US is in decline and that China is on the rise, and I guess the response would have been seen in Beijing as confirmation of that thinking,” he said. The US and China came perhaps closest to striking in 1996, when China, angered by what it saw as growing US support for Taiwan, fired missiles into waters about 30 kilometers (20 miles) off Taiwan’s coast before the first popular presidential election in Taiwan. The US responded with its own show of force, sending two aircraft carrier groups to the region. At the time, China had no aircraft carriers and few means to threaten American ships and retreated. China then embarked on a massive modernization of its military, and recent exercises show a “quantum leap” in improvement since 1996, showing a joint command and control coordination never seen before, Chen said. But before it is confident enough to launch an actual invasion of Taiwan, the Chinese military needs to do more to assure the country’s political leadership that it will be successful, he said. “These latest exercises are probably part of the demonstration of that capability, but more needs to be done before they can be confident of conducting a full-scale amphibious invasion of Taiwan,” he said. “They have only shown the naval blockade and the air control parts of this campaign, with no opposition.” After the visit, China released an updated “white paper” on Taiwan outlining what a possible annexation of the island would look like. It said it would follow the “one country, two systems” model implemented in Hong Kong, which critics say has been undermined by a sweeping national security law that asserts Beijing’s control over speech and political participation. The idea has been roundly rejected in Taiwan opinion polls, in which respondents are overwhelmingly in favor of their current de facto independence. Indicatively, the new White Paper reneged on a commitment in its previous iteration not to send troops or government officials to an annexed Taiwan. China has denied all contact with Taiwan’s government since the 2016 election of President Tsai Ing-wen of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party. Tsai was re-elected overwhelmingly in 2020. China’s belligerent response to Pelosi’s visit may have the unintended effect of boosting the DPP in midterm elections later this year, said Huang Kwei-bo, vice chancellor of the College of International Affairs at National Taiwan Chengchi University. Ideally, it would be in Taiwan’s best interest if both sides stepped down and found “reasonable ways” to settle the differences, he said. “There is an old saying that when two big elephants fight, the ant and the grass suffer,” he said.

AP reporter Johnson Lai in Taipei, Taiwan, contributed to this story.

title: “China S Response To Pelosi S Visit Is An Indication Of Future Intentions Klmat” ShowToc: true date: “2022-12-16” author: “Ricky Smart”

The dust has yet to settle, with Taiwan holding exercises this week and Beijing announcing more maneuvers are planned, but experts say much can already be gleaned from what China has and hasn’t done so far. China will also learn lessons about its own military capabilities from the drills, which looked more like what an actual strike would look like on the island claimed by Beijing as its own territory, and from the American and Taiwanese response. During the nearly week-long maneuvers that followed Pelosi’s visit in early August, China sailed ships and routinely flew aircraft across the median line in the Taiwan Strait, claiming the de facto boundary did not exist, fired missiles over Taiwan itself and challenged established norms by launching missiles into Japan’s exclusive economic zone. “I think we are in a dangerous period of testing limits and finding out who can achieve escalating dominance in diplomatic, military and economic domains,” said David Chen, an analyst at CENTRA Technology, a US-based consultancy. Pelosi was the highest-ranking member of the US administration to visit Taiwan in 25 years, and her visit came at a particularly sensitive time as Chinese President Xi Jinping prepares to seek a third five-year term as leader of the ruling Communist Party later. This year. Under Xi, China has increasingly asserted that Taiwan must be brought under its control — by force if necessary — and U.S. military officials have said Beijing may seek a military solution within the next few years. Tensions were already high, with China conducting regular military flights near Taiwan and the US regularly passing warships through the Taiwan Strait to emphasize that it is international waters. China accuses the US of encouraging the island’s independence through arms sales and entanglement between US politicians and the island’s government. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying called Pelosi’s visit a “serious provocation” and accused Washington of violating the status quo and “interfering in China’s internal affairs.” “China is not the old China of 120 years ago, and we are not Iraq, Syria or Afghanistan – we will not allow any foreign power to intimidate, suppress or enslave us,” he told reporters in Beijing. “Anyone who wants to do so will be on a collision course with the Great Wall of China forged by 1.4 billion Chinese people.” The US continues to insist it has not deviated from its “one China” policy, recognizing the government in Beijing while allowing informal relations and defense ties with Taipei. China halted its maneuvers until Pelosi left Taiwan and turned back its forces before they approached Taiwan’s coast or territorial airspace, which showed “a modest restraint,” Chen said. But, he noted, another visit to Congress after Pelosi sparked the announcement of more exercises. “We are likely entering a period of regular military demonstrations in and around China’s territorial waters,” he said. “The Chinese Communist Party is also quite capable of creating cross-sector responses, as has been seen in cyberspace. Beyond that, we could see escalating movements in space, in the South China Sea, Africa, the Indian Ocean or the South Pacific.” Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said the scale and coordination of the drills suggest China is looking beyond Taiwan to establish dominance in the western Pacific. This would include control of the East and South China Seas through the Taiwan Strait and the ability to impose a blockade to prevent the US and its allies from helping Taiwan in the event of an attack. Short of an armed conflict, blocking the Taiwan Strait — a major route for global trade — could have major implications for international supply chains at a time when the world is already facing disruptions. In particular, Taiwan is a critical supplier of computer chips to the global economy. While ostensibly a reaction to Pelosi’s visit, it’s clear that China’s drills have been planned for some time, said Mareike Ohlberg, senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund think tank’s Asia Program. “I think they were looking for an opportunity to scale,” he said. “This is not something you prepare after the announcement (of the visit) and then do it so quickly and so easily.” The US held back throughout the maneuvers, keeping an aircraft carrier group and two amphibious assault ships in the area, but not near the island. Taiwan avoided any active countermeasures. Kurt Campbell, the Biden administration’s coordinator for Indo-Pacific affairs, said this week that the US was taking a “calm and decisive” long-term approach that would include continued passage through the Taiwan Straits, supporting Taiwan’s self-defense capabilities and otherwise deepening ties with the island. To that end, the US announced on Thursday that it is starting talks with Taiwan on a broad trade agreement. Campbell said Washington sees China’s actions as “part of an intensive pressure campaign against Taiwan, which is far from over.” “We expect it to continue to unfold in the coming weeks and months,” he said. The US Department of Defense has recognized China’s increasingly capable military, saying it has become a real rival and has already surpassed the US military in some areas, including shipbuilding, and now has the world’s largest navy. The cautious American response to the recent drills seemed calculated to avoid any accidental confrontation that could have escalated the situation, but could also fuel China’s confidence, Ohlberg said. “The basis of China’s thinking is that the US is in decline and that China is on the rise, and I guess the response would have been seen in Beijing as confirmation of that thinking,” he said. The US and China came perhaps closest to striking in 1996, when China, angered by what it saw as growing US support for Taiwan, fired missiles into waters about 30 kilometers (20 miles) off Taiwan’s coast before the first popular presidential election in Taiwan. The US responded with its own show of force, sending two aircraft carrier groups to the region. At the time, China had no aircraft carriers and few means to threaten American ships and retreated. China then embarked on a massive modernization of its military, and recent exercises show a “quantum leap” in improvement since 1996, showing a joint command and control coordination never seen before, Chen said. But before it is confident enough to launch an actual invasion of Taiwan, the Chinese military needs to do more to assure the country’s political leadership that it will be successful, he said. “These latest exercises are probably part of the demonstration of that capability, but more needs to be done before they can be confident of conducting a full-scale amphibious invasion of Taiwan,” he said. “They have only shown the naval blockade and the air control parts of this campaign, with no opposition.” After the visit, China released an updated “white paper” on Taiwan outlining what a possible annexation of the island would look like. It said it would follow the “one country, two systems” model implemented in Hong Kong, which critics say has been undermined by a sweeping national security law that asserts Beijing’s control over speech and political participation. The idea has been roundly rejected in Taiwan opinion polls, in which respondents are overwhelmingly in favor of their current de facto independence. Indicatively, the new White Paper reneged on a commitment in its previous iteration not to send troops or government officials to an annexed Taiwan. China has denied all contact with Taiwan’s government since the 2016 election of President Tsai Ing-wen of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party. Tsai was re-elected overwhelmingly in 2020. China’s belligerent response to Pelosi’s visit may have the unintended effect of boosting the DPP in midterm elections later this year, said Huang Kwei-bo, vice chancellor of the College of International Affairs at National Taiwan Chengchi University. Ideally, it would be in Taiwan’s best interest if both sides stepped down and found “reasonable ways” to settle the differences, he said. “There is an old saying that when two big elephants fight, the ant and the grass suffer,” he said.

AP reporter Johnson Lai in Taipei, Taiwan, contributed to this story.

title: “China S Response To Pelosi S Visit Is An Indication Of Future Intentions Klmat” ShowToc: true date: “2022-11-22” author: “Claude Fournier”

The dust has yet to settle, with Taiwan holding exercises this week and Beijing announcing more maneuvers are planned, but experts say much can already be gleaned from what China has and hasn’t done so far. China will also learn lessons about its own military capabilities from the drills, which looked more like what an actual strike would look like on the island claimed by Beijing as its own territory, and from the American and Taiwanese response. During the nearly week-long maneuvers that followed Pelosi’s visit in early August, China sailed ships and routinely flew aircraft across the median line in the Taiwan Strait, claiming the de facto boundary did not exist, fired missiles over Taiwan itself and challenged established norms by launching missiles into Japan’s exclusive economic zone. “I think we are in a dangerous period of testing limits and finding out who can achieve escalating dominance in diplomatic, military and economic domains,” said David Chen, an analyst at CENTRA Technology, a US-based consultancy. Pelosi was the highest-ranking member of the US administration to visit Taiwan in 25 years, and her visit came at a particularly sensitive time as Chinese President Xi Jinping prepares to seek a third five-year term as leader of the ruling Communist Party later. This year. Under Xi, China has increasingly asserted that Taiwan must be brought under its control — by force if necessary — and U.S. military officials have said Beijing may seek a military solution within the next few years. Tensions were already high, with China conducting regular military flights near Taiwan and the US regularly passing warships through the Taiwan Strait to emphasize that it is international waters. China accuses the US of encouraging the island’s independence through arms sales and entanglement between US politicians and the island’s government. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying called Pelosi’s visit a “serious provocation” and accused Washington of violating the status quo and “interfering in China’s internal affairs.” “China is not the old China of 120 years ago, and we are not Iraq, Syria or Afghanistan – we will not allow any foreign power to intimidate, suppress or enslave us,” he told reporters in Beijing. “Anyone who wants to do so will be on a collision course with the Great Wall of China forged by 1.4 billion Chinese people.” The US continues to insist it has not deviated from its “one China” policy, recognizing the government in Beijing while allowing informal relations and defense ties with Taipei. China halted its maneuvers until Pelosi left Taiwan and turned back its forces before they approached Taiwan’s coast or territorial airspace, which showed “a modest restraint,” Chen said. But, he noted, another visit to Congress after Pelosi sparked the announcement of more exercises. “We are likely entering a period of regular military demonstrations in and around China’s territorial waters,” he said. “The Chinese Communist Party is also quite capable of creating cross-sector responses, as has been seen in cyberspace. Beyond that, we could see escalating movements in space, in the South China Sea, Africa, the Indian Ocean or the South Pacific.” Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said the scale and coordination of the drills suggest China is looking beyond Taiwan to establish dominance in the western Pacific. This would include control of the East and South China Seas through the Taiwan Strait and the ability to impose a blockade to prevent the US and its allies from helping Taiwan in the event of an attack. Short of an armed conflict, blocking the Taiwan Strait — a major route for global trade — could have major implications for international supply chains at a time when the world is already facing disruptions. In particular, Taiwan is a critical supplier of computer chips to the global economy. While ostensibly a reaction to Pelosi’s visit, it’s clear that China’s drills have been planned for some time, said Mareike Ohlberg, senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund think tank’s Asia Program. “I think they were looking for an opportunity to scale,” he said. “This is not something you prepare after the announcement (of the visit) and then do it so quickly and so easily.” The US held back throughout the maneuvers, keeping an aircraft carrier group and two amphibious assault ships in the area, but not near the island. Taiwan avoided any active countermeasures. Kurt Campbell, the Biden administration’s coordinator for Indo-Pacific affairs, said this week that the US was taking a “calm and decisive” long-term approach that would include continued passage through the Taiwan Straits, supporting Taiwan’s self-defense capabilities and otherwise deepening ties with the island. To that end, the US announced on Thursday that it is starting talks with Taiwan on a broad trade agreement. Campbell said Washington sees China’s actions as “part of an intensive pressure campaign against Taiwan, which is far from over.” “We expect it to continue to unfold in the coming weeks and months,” he said. The US Department of Defense has recognized China’s increasingly capable military, saying it has become a real rival and has already surpassed the US military in some areas, including shipbuilding, and now has the world’s largest navy. The cautious American response to the recent drills seemed calculated to avoid any accidental confrontation that could have escalated the situation, but could also fuel China’s confidence, Ohlberg said. “The basis of China’s thinking is that the US is in decline and that China is on the rise, and I guess the response would have been seen in Beijing as confirmation of that thinking,” he said. The US and China came perhaps closest to striking in 1996, when China, angered by what it saw as growing US support for Taiwan, fired missiles into waters about 30 kilometers (20 miles) off Taiwan’s coast before the first popular presidential election in Taiwan. The US responded with its own show of force, sending two aircraft carrier groups to the region. At the time, China had no aircraft carriers and few means to threaten American ships and retreated. China then embarked on a massive modernization of its military, and recent exercises show a “quantum leap” in improvement since 1996, showing a joint command and control coordination never seen before, Chen said. But before it is confident enough to launch an actual invasion of Taiwan, the Chinese military needs to do more to assure the country’s political leadership that it will be successful, he said. “These latest exercises are probably part of the demonstration of that capability, but more needs to be done before they can be confident of conducting a full-scale amphibious invasion of Taiwan,” he said. “They have only shown the naval blockade and the air control parts of this campaign, with no opposition.” After the visit, China released an updated “white paper” on Taiwan outlining what a possible annexation of the island would look like. It said it would follow the “one country, two systems” model implemented in Hong Kong, which critics say has been undermined by a sweeping national security law that asserts Beijing’s control over speech and political participation. The idea has been roundly rejected in Taiwan opinion polls, in which respondents are overwhelmingly in favor of their current de facto independence. Indicatively, the new White Paper reneged on a commitment in its previous iteration not to send troops or government officials to an annexed Taiwan. China has denied all contact with Taiwan’s government since the 2016 election of President Tsai Ing-wen of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party. Tsai was re-elected overwhelmingly in 2020. China’s belligerent response to Pelosi’s visit may have the unintended effect of boosting the DPP in midterm elections later this year, said Huang Kwei-bo, vice chancellor of the College of International Affairs at National Taiwan Chengchi University. Ideally, it would be in Taiwan’s best interest if both sides stepped down and found “reasonable ways” to settle the differences, he said. “There is an old saying that when two big elephants fight, the ant and the grass suffer,” he said.

AP reporter Johnson Lai in Taipei, Taiwan, contributed to this story.

title: “China S Response To Pelosi S Visit Is An Indication Of Future Intentions Klmat” ShowToc: true date: “2022-11-06” author: “Felix Hancock”

The dust has yet to settle, with Taiwan holding exercises this week and Beijing announcing more maneuvers are planned, but experts say much can already be gleaned from what China has and hasn’t done so far. China will also learn lessons about its own military capabilities from the drills, which looked more like what an actual strike would look like on the island claimed by Beijing as its own territory, and from the American and Taiwanese response. During the nearly week-long maneuvers that followed Pelosi’s visit in early August, China sailed ships and routinely flew aircraft across the median line in the Taiwan Strait, claiming the de facto boundary did not exist, fired missiles over Taiwan itself and challenged established norms by launching missiles into Japan’s exclusive economic zone. “I think we are in a dangerous period of testing limits and finding out who can achieve escalating dominance in diplomatic, military and economic domains,” said David Chen, an analyst at CENTRA Technology, a US-based consultancy. Pelosi was the highest-ranking member of the US administration to visit Taiwan in 25 years, and her visit came at a particularly sensitive time as Chinese President Xi Jinping prepares to seek a third five-year term as leader of the ruling Communist Party later. This year. Under Xi, China has increasingly asserted that Taiwan must be brought under its control — by force if necessary — and U.S. military officials have said Beijing may seek a military solution within the next few years. Tensions were already high, with China conducting regular military flights near Taiwan and the US regularly passing warships through the Taiwan Strait to emphasize that it is international waters. China accuses the US of encouraging the island’s independence through arms sales and entanglement between US politicians and the island’s government. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying called Pelosi’s visit a “serious provocation” and accused Washington of violating the status quo and “interfering in China’s internal affairs.” “China is not the old China of 120 years ago, and we are not Iraq, Syria or Afghanistan – we will not allow any foreign power to intimidate, suppress or enslave us,” he told reporters in Beijing. “Anyone who wants to do so will be on a collision course with the Great Wall of China forged by 1.4 billion Chinese people.” The US continues to insist it has not deviated from its “one China” policy, recognizing the government in Beijing while allowing informal relations and defense ties with Taipei. China halted its maneuvers until Pelosi left Taiwan and turned back its forces before they approached Taiwan’s coast or territorial airspace, which showed “a modest restraint,” Chen said. But, he noted, another visit to Congress after Pelosi sparked the announcement of more exercises. “We are likely entering a period of regular military demonstrations in and around China’s territorial waters,” he said. “The Chinese Communist Party is also quite capable of creating cross-sector responses, as has been seen in cyberspace. Beyond that, we could see escalating movements in space, in the South China Sea, Africa, the Indian Ocean or the South Pacific.” Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said the scale and coordination of the drills suggest China is looking beyond Taiwan to establish dominance in the western Pacific. This would include control of the East and South China Seas through the Taiwan Strait and the ability to impose a blockade to prevent the US and its allies from helping Taiwan in the event of an attack. Short of an armed conflict, blocking the Taiwan Strait — a major route for global trade — could have major implications for international supply chains at a time when the world is already facing disruptions. In particular, Taiwan is a critical supplier of computer chips to the global economy. While ostensibly a reaction to Pelosi’s visit, it’s clear that China’s drills have been planned for some time, said Mareike Ohlberg, senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund think tank’s Asia Program. “I think they were looking for an opportunity to scale,” he said. “This is not something you prepare after the announcement (of the visit) and then do it so quickly and so easily.” The US held back throughout the maneuvers, keeping an aircraft carrier group and two amphibious assault ships in the area, but not near the island. Taiwan avoided any active countermeasures. Kurt Campbell, the Biden administration’s coordinator for Indo-Pacific affairs, said this week that the US was taking a “calm and decisive” long-term approach that would include continued passage through the Taiwan Straits, supporting Taiwan’s self-defense capabilities and otherwise deepening ties with the island. To that end, the US announced on Thursday that it is starting talks with Taiwan on a broad trade agreement. Campbell said Washington sees China’s actions as “part of an intensive pressure campaign against Taiwan, which is far from over.” “We expect it to continue to unfold in the coming weeks and months,” he said. The US Department of Defense has recognized China’s increasingly capable military, saying it has become a real rival and has already surpassed the US military in some areas, including shipbuilding, and now has the world’s largest navy. The cautious American response to the recent drills seemed calculated to avoid any accidental confrontation that could have escalated the situation, but could also fuel China’s confidence, Ohlberg said. “The basis of China’s thinking is that the US is in decline and that China is on the rise, and I guess the response would have been seen in Beijing as confirmation of that thinking,” he said. The US and China came perhaps closest to striking in 1996, when China, angered by what it saw as growing US support for Taiwan, fired missiles into waters about 30 kilometers (20 miles) off Taiwan’s coast before the first popular presidential election in Taiwan. The US responded with its own show of force, sending two aircraft carrier groups to the region. At the time, China had no aircraft carriers and few means to threaten American ships and retreated. China then embarked on a massive modernization of its military, and recent exercises show a “quantum leap” in improvement since 1996, showing a joint command and control coordination never seen before, Chen said. But before it is confident enough to launch an actual invasion of Taiwan, the Chinese military needs to do more to assure the country’s political leadership that it will be successful, he said. “These latest exercises are probably part of the demonstration of that capability, but more needs to be done before they can be confident of conducting a full-scale amphibious invasion of Taiwan,” he said. “They have only shown the naval blockade and the air control parts of this campaign, with no opposition.” After the visit, China released an updated “white paper” on Taiwan outlining what a possible annexation of the island would look like. It said it would follow the “one country, two systems” model implemented in Hong Kong, which critics say has been undermined by a sweeping national security law that asserts Beijing’s control over speech and political participation. The idea has been roundly rejected in Taiwan opinion polls, in which respondents are overwhelmingly in favor of their current de facto independence. Indicatively, the new White Paper reneged on a commitment in its previous iteration not to send troops or government officials to an annexed Taiwan. China has denied all contact with Taiwan’s government since the 2016 election of President Tsai Ing-wen of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party. Tsai was re-elected overwhelmingly in 2020. China’s belligerent response to Pelosi’s visit may have the unintended effect of boosting the DPP in midterm elections later this year, said Huang Kwei-bo, vice chancellor of the College of International Affairs at National Taiwan Chengchi University. Ideally, it would be in Taiwan’s best interest if both sides stepped down and found “reasonable ways” to settle the differences, he said. “There is an old saying that when two big elephants fight, the ant and the grass suffer,” he said.

AP reporter Johnson Lai in Taipei, Taiwan, contributed to this story.