But it’s not 2008, when China’s then-rapidly growing economy and a massive stimulus unleashed by the Beijing government helped Western countries recover much more quickly from the financial crisis. This time, China’s economic woes are deep. The government has abandoned this year’s target of 5.5 percent GDP growth, and Premier Li Keqiang warned last month that there was no appetite right now for more expansionary policymaking. Business and consumer activity in the world’s second-largest economy has been hampered by Beijing’s zero-covid-19 policy, which triggered months-long restrictions on workers in dozens of cities, forcing many businesses to close. Chinese leaders are loathe to reverse the draconian policy now, for fear of unleashing a bigger crisis.
China cannot learn to live with COVID
“China has basically not lived with COVID like the rest of the world. So there would be economic chaos if the virus suddenly broke the country,” Jacob Gunter, senior analyst at the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) ), told DW. “There is no accumulated immunity – as they refused to introduce mRNA vaccines – they do not have a very advanced health care system and there is a lot of reluctance about vaccines.” Worse, the government’s recent crackdown on property developer debt has sparked a real estate crash that has pushed one of the country’s biggest developers, China Evergrande, to the brink of bankruptcy. Chinese homebuyers have stopped paying mortgages on unfinished apartments, bank loans for property purchases have fallen for the first time in a decade and housing stock – a measure of new construction activity – nearly halved in the second quarter. “The property crash is the biggest problem [compared with the zero-COVID policy]said Craig Botham, China specialist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “The economy has shown it can recover quickly from lockdowns, but the damage from falling asset prices in a sector worth 30% of GDP is far more devastating. Households, banks and local governments all have damaged balance sheets.” China’s real estate developers have relied on advances to finance future real estate projects While refusing to unleash more monetary stimulus until inflation and the pandemic are under control, China’s central bank cut interest rates this week after industrial production and retail sales rose less than expected and oil demand fell 10%. annually in July.
China is cutting while the world is raising interest rates
“It’s the opposite of what’s happening everywhere else in the world where countries are raising their interest rates,” Guder told DW. “China has the opposite problems we have in the United States and Europe,” adding that Chinese consumers are afraid to spend for fear of being quarantined without income. Botham said the latest rate cuts are unlikely to make much of a difference to economic growth for two reasons. “One is that they will only directly affect banks’ funding costs, without requiring them to pass through to the real economy. The second, and more important, is that loan demand has fallen off the cliff. I suspect that the PBoC [People’s Bank of China] he felt he had to do something, even though he knows that whatever he does will have minimal impact,” he added. With the prospect of further stimulus on hold, the central government has sought to deflect attention from Beijing by telling regional governments to do more to help stabilize growth and boost job opportunities, which has been met with skepticism. “Local governments have balance sheets full of holes and can’t do much more,” warned Botham. “We need to see the central government step in. The Pantheon Macroeconomics analyst called for a shift from the supply side to the demand side. In May, Beijing announced 50 policy measures to help regions recover from lockdowns. They included tax breaks for businesses and consumers and other subsidies. Li this week visited the southern tech hub of Shenzhen on what he said was an economic fact-finding mission ahead of this month’s Politburo meeting.
Xi is under pressure to boost demand
Pressure has already mounted on China’s leaders after a state-run newspaper this week called for a front-page report on new pro-growth policies. Citing Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank, Financial News reported that Beijing should use more stimulus to boost demand. The paper also called for more industrial policies and measures to buy property, which it said would lead to a recovery in production and consumption. Resistance to a new stimulus could ease in the coming months as President Xi Jinping seeks re-election as Chinese leader at the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party. The summit, expected in November, according to Hong Kong newspaper Ming Pao, is likely to approve Xi’s third term. Unlike in 2008, when China’s 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion, 579 billion euros) of monetary stimulus helped stabilize the global economy, the impact of any future expansionary policies by Beijing is likely to be limited for the West, he said. Botham to DW. However, he said they could help ease the cost-of-living crisis plaguing development in the West. “It’s safe to say [China] it will not save the global economy in this cycle. Hopes for a new China-led commodity supercycle will be dashed. However, the focus on supply-side policies and weakness in Chinese demand will mean that China will export deflation and even deflation to the rest of the world over the next 12 months, helping to lower global inflation.” Editor: Hardy Graupner
title: “Why China S Economy Is In Trouble And What It Means For You Business Economic And Financial News From The German Perspective Dw Klmat” ShowToc: true date: “2022-10-25” author: “Whitney Michl”
But it’s not 2008, when China’s then-rapidly growing economy and a massive stimulus unleashed by the Beijing government helped Western countries recover much more quickly from the financial crisis. This time, China’s economic woes are deep. The government has abandoned this year’s target of 5.5 percent GDP growth, and Premier Li Keqiang warned last month that there was no appetite right now for more expansionary policymaking. Business and consumer activity in the world’s second-largest economy has been hampered by Beijing’s zero-covid-19 policy, which triggered months-long restrictions on workers in dozens of cities, forcing many businesses to close. Chinese leaders are loathe to reverse the draconian policy now, for fear of unleashing a bigger crisis.
China cannot learn to live with COVID
“China has basically not lived with COVID like the rest of the world. So there would be economic chaos if the virus suddenly broke the country,” Jacob Gunter, senior analyst at the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) ), told DW. “There is no accumulated immunity – as they refused to introduce mRNA vaccines – they do not have a very advanced health care system and there is a lot of reluctance about vaccines.” Worse, the government’s recent crackdown on property developer debt has sparked a real estate crash that has pushed one of the country’s biggest developers, China Evergrande, to the brink of bankruptcy. Chinese homebuyers have stopped paying mortgages on unfinished apartments, bank loans for property purchases have fallen for the first time in a decade and housing stock – a measure of new construction activity – nearly halved in the second quarter. “The property crash is the biggest problem [compared with the zero-COVID policy]said Craig Botham, China specialist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “The economy has shown it can recover quickly from lockdowns, but the damage from falling asset prices in a sector worth 30% of GDP is far more devastating. Households, banks and local governments all have damaged balance sheets.” China’s real estate developers have relied on advances to finance future real estate projects While refusing to unleash more monetary stimulus until inflation and the pandemic are under control, China’s central bank cut interest rates this week after industrial production and retail sales rose less than expected and oil demand fell 10%. annually in July.
China is cutting while the world is raising interest rates
“It’s the opposite of what’s happening everywhere else in the world where countries are raising their interest rates,” Guder told DW. “China has the opposite problems we have in the United States and Europe,” adding that Chinese consumers are afraid to spend for fear of being quarantined without income. Botham said the latest rate cuts are unlikely to make much of a difference to economic growth for two reasons. “One is that they will only directly affect banks’ funding costs, without requiring them to pass through to the real economy. The second, and more important, is that loan demand has fallen off the cliff. I suspect that the PBoC [People’s Bank of China] he felt he had to do something, even though he knows that whatever he does will have minimal impact,” he added. With the prospect of further stimulus on hold, the central government has sought to deflect attention from Beijing by telling regional governments to do more to help stabilize growth and boost job opportunities, which has been met with skepticism. “Local governments have balance sheets full of holes and can’t do much more,” warned Botham. “We need to see the central government step in. The Pantheon Macroeconomics analyst called for a shift from the supply side to the demand side. In May, Beijing announced 50 policy measures to help regions recover from lockdowns. They included tax breaks for businesses and consumers and other subsidies. Li this week visited the southern tech hub of Shenzhen on what he said was an economic fact-finding mission ahead of this month’s Politburo meeting.
Xi is under pressure to boost demand
Pressure has already mounted on China’s leaders after a state-run newspaper this week called for a front-page report on new pro-growth policies. Citing Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank, Financial News reported that Beijing should use more stimulus to boost demand. The paper also called for more industrial policies and measures to buy property, which it said would lead to a recovery in production and consumption. Resistance to a new stimulus could ease in the coming months as President Xi Jinping seeks re-election as Chinese leader at the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party. The summit, expected in November, according to Hong Kong newspaper Ming Pao, is likely to approve Xi’s third term. Unlike in 2008, when China’s 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion, 579 billion euros) of monetary stimulus helped stabilize the global economy, the impact of any future expansionary policies by Beijing is likely to be limited for the West, he said. Botham to DW. However, he said they could help ease the cost-of-living crisis plaguing development in the West. “It’s safe to say [China] it will not save the global economy in this cycle. Hopes for a new China-led commodity supercycle will be dashed. However, the focus on supply-side policies and weakness in Chinese demand will mean that China will export deflation and even deflation to the rest of the world over the next 12 months, helping to lower global inflation.” Editor: Hardy Graupner
title: “Why China S Economy Is In Trouble And What It Means For You Business Economic And Financial News From The German Perspective Dw Klmat” ShowToc: true date: “2022-11-29” author: “Nadine Smith”
But it’s not 2008, when China’s then-rapidly growing economy and a massive stimulus unleashed by the Beijing government helped Western countries recover much more quickly from the financial crisis. This time, China’s economic woes are deep. The government has abandoned this year’s target of 5.5 percent GDP growth, and Premier Li Keqiang warned last month that there was no appetite right now for more expansionary policymaking. Business and consumer activity in the world’s second-largest economy has been hampered by Beijing’s zero-covid-19 policy, which triggered months-long restrictions on workers in dozens of cities, forcing many businesses to close. Chinese leaders are loathe to reverse the draconian policy now, for fear of unleashing a bigger crisis.
China cannot learn to live with COVID
“China has basically not lived with COVID like the rest of the world. So there would be economic chaos if the virus suddenly broke the country,” Jacob Gunter, senior analyst at the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) ), told DW. “There is no accumulated immunity – as they refused to introduce mRNA vaccines – they do not have a very advanced health care system and there is a lot of reluctance about vaccines.” Worse, the government’s recent crackdown on property developer debt has sparked a real estate crash that has pushed one of the country’s biggest developers, China Evergrande, to the brink of bankruptcy. Chinese homebuyers have stopped paying mortgages on unfinished apartments, bank loans for property purchases have fallen for the first time in a decade and housing stock – a measure of new construction activity – nearly halved in the second quarter. “The property crash is the biggest problem [compared with the zero-COVID policy]said Craig Botham, China specialist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “The economy has shown it can recover quickly from lockdowns, but the damage from falling asset prices in a sector worth 30% of GDP is far more devastating. Households, banks and local governments all have damaged balance sheets.” China’s real estate developers have relied on advances to finance future real estate projects While refusing to unleash more monetary stimulus until inflation and the pandemic are under control, China’s central bank cut interest rates this week after industrial production and retail sales rose less than expected and oil demand fell 10%. annually in July.
China is cutting while the world is raising interest rates
“It’s the opposite of what’s happening everywhere else in the world where countries are raising their interest rates,” Guder told DW. “China has the opposite problems we have in the United States and Europe,” adding that Chinese consumers are afraid to spend for fear of being quarantined without income. Botham said the latest rate cuts are unlikely to make much of a difference to economic growth for two reasons. “One is that they will only directly affect banks’ funding costs, without requiring them to pass through to the real economy. The second, and more important, is that loan demand has fallen off the cliff. I suspect that the PBoC [People’s Bank of China] he felt he had to do something, even though he knows that whatever he does will have minimal impact,” he added. With the prospect of further stimulus on hold, the central government has sought to deflect attention from Beijing by telling regional governments to do more to help stabilize growth and boost job opportunities, which has been met with skepticism. “Local governments have balance sheets full of holes and can’t do much more,” warned Botham. “We need to see the central government step in. The Pantheon Macroeconomics analyst called for a shift from the supply side to the demand side. In May, Beijing announced 50 policy measures to help regions recover from lockdowns. They included tax breaks for businesses and consumers and other subsidies. Li this week visited the southern tech hub of Shenzhen on what he said was an economic fact-finding mission ahead of this month’s Politburo meeting.
Xi is under pressure to boost demand
Pressure has already mounted on China’s leaders after a state-run newspaper this week called for a front-page report on new pro-growth policies. Citing Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank, Financial News reported that Beijing should use more stimulus to boost demand. The paper also called for more industrial policies and measures to buy property, which it said would lead to a recovery in production and consumption. Resistance to a new stimulus could ease in the coming months as President Xi Jinping seeks re-election as Chinese leader at the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party. The summit, expected in November, according to Hong Kong newspaper Ming Pao, is likely to approve Xi’s third term. Unlike in 2008, when China’s 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion, 579 billion euros) of monetary stimulus helped stabilize the global economy, the impact of any future expansionary policies by Beijing is likely to be limited for the West, he said. Botham to DW. However, he said they could help ease the cost-of-living crisis plaguing development in the West. “It’s safe to say [China] it will not save the global economy in this cycle. Hopes for a new China-led commodity supercycle will be dashed. However, the focus on supply-side policies and weakness in Chinese demand will mean that China will export deflation and even deflation to the rest of the world over the next 12 months, helping to lower global inflation.” Editor: Hardy Graupner
title: “Why China S Economy Is In Trouble And What It Means For You Business Economic And Financial News From The German Perspective Dw Klmat” ShowToc: true date: “2022-11-07” author: “Edgar Mathies”
But it’s not 2008, when China’s then-rapidly growing economy and a massive stimulus unleashed by the Beijing government helped Western countries recover much more quickly from the financial crisis. This time, China’s economic woes are deep. The government has abandoned this year’s target of 5.5 percent GDP growth, and Premier Li Keqiang warned last month that there was no appetite right now for more expansionary policymaking. Business and consumer activity in the world’s second-largest economy has been hampered by Beijing’s zero-covid-19 policy, which triggered months-long restrictions on workers in dozens of cities, forcing many businesses to close. Chinese leaders are loathe to reverse the draconian policy now, for fear of unleashing a bigger crisis.
China cannot learn to live with COVID
“China has basically not lived with COVID like the rest of the world. So there would be economic chaos if the virus suddenly broke the country,” Jacob Gunter, senior analyst at the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) ), told DW. “There is no accumulated immunity – as they refused to introduce mRNA vaccines – they do not have a very advanced health care system and there is a lot of reluctance about vaccines.” Worse, the government’s recent crackdown on property developer debt has sparked a real estate crash that has pushed one of the country’s biggest developers, China Evergrande, to the brink of bankruptcy. Chinese homebuyers have stopped paying mortgages on unfinished apartments, bank loans for property purchases have fallen for the first time in a decade and housing stock – a measure of new construction activity – nearly halved in the second quarter. “The property crash is the biggest problem [compared with the zero-COVID policy]said Craig Botham, China specialist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “The economy has shown it can recover quickly from lockdowns, but the damage from falling asset prices in a sector worth 30% of GDP is far more devastating. Households, banks and local governments all have damaged balance sheets.” China’s real estate developers have relied on advances to finance future real estate projects While refusing to unleash more monetary stimulus until inflation and the pandemic are under control, China’s central bank cut interest rates this week after industrial production and retail sales rose less than expected and oil demand fell 10%. annually in July.
China is cutting while the world is raising interest rates
“It’s the opposite of what’s happening everywhere else in the world where countries are raising their interest rates,” Guder told DW. “China has the opposite problems we have in the United States and Europe,” adding that Chinese consumers are afraid to spend for fear of being quarantined without income. Botham said the latest rate cuts are unlikely to make much of a difference to economic growth for two reasons. “One is that they will only directly affect banks’ funding costs, without requiring them to pass through to the real economy. The second, and more important, is that loan demand has fallen off the cliff. I suspect that the PBoC [People’s Bank of China] he felt he had to do something, even though he knows that whatever he does will have minimal impact,” he added. With the prospect of further stimulus on hold, the central government has sought to deflect attention from Beijing by telling regional governments to do more to help stabilize growth and boost job opportunities, which has been met with skepticism. “Local governments have balance sheets full of holes and can’t do much more,” warned Botham. “We need to see the central government step in. The Pantheon Macroeconomics analyst called for a shift from the supply side to the demand side. In May, Beijing announced 50 policy measures to help regions recover from lockdowns. They included tax breaks for businesses and consumers and other subsidies. Li this week visited the southern tech hub of Shenzhen on what he said was an economic fact-finding mission ahead of this month’s Politburo meeting.
Xi is under pressure to boost demand
Pressure has already mounted on China’s leaders after a state-run newspaper this week called for a front-page report on new pro-growth policies. Citing Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank, Financial News reported that Beijing should use more stimulus to boost demand. The paper also called for more industrial policies and measures to buy property, which it said would lead to a recovery in production and consumption. Resistance to a new stimulus could ease in the coming months as President Xi Jinping seeks re-election as Chinese leader at the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party. The summit, expected in November, according to Hong Kong newspaper Ming Pao, is likely to approve Xi’s third term. Unlike in 2008, when China’s 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion, 579 billion euros) of monetary stimulus helped stabilize the global economy, the impact of any future expansionary policies by Beijing is likely to be limited for the West, he said. Botham to DW. However, he said they could help ease the cost-of-living crisis plaguing development in the West. “It’s safe to say [China] it will not save the global economy in this cycle. Hopes for a new China-led commodity supercycle will be dashed. However, the focus on supply-side policies and weakness in Chinese demand will mean that China will export deflation and even deflation to the rest of the world over the next 12 months, helping to lower global inflation.” Editor: Hardy Graupner
title: “Why China S Economy Is In Trouble And What It Means For You Business Economic And Financial News From The German Perspective Dw Klmat” ShowToc: true date: “2022-12-08” author: “Michael Aucoin”
But it’s not 2008, when China’s then-rapidly growing economy and a massive stimulus unleashed by the Beijing government helped Western countries recover much more quickly from the financial crisis. This time, China’s economic woes are deep. The government has abandoned this year’s target of 5.5 percent GDP growth, and Premier Li Keqiang warned last month that there was no appetite right now for more expansionary policymaking. Business and consumer activity in the world’s second-largest economy has been hampered by Beijing’s zero-covid-19 policy, which triggered months-long restrictions on workers in dozens of cities, forcing many businesses to close. Chinese leaders are loathe to reverse the draconian policy now, for fear of unleashing a bigger crisis.
China cannot learn to live with COVID
“China has basically not lived with COVID like the rest of the world. So there would be economic chaos if the virus suddenly broke the country,” Jacob Gunter, senior analyst at the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) ), told DW. “There is no accumulated immunity – as they refused to introduce mRNA vaccines – they do not have a very advanced health care system and there is a lot of reluctance about vaccines.” Worse, the government’s recent crackdown on property developer debt has sparked a real estate crash that has pushed one of the country’s biggest developers, China Evergrande, to the brink of bankruptcy. Chinese homebuyers have stopped paying mortgages on unfinished apartments, bank loans for property purchases have fallen for the first time in a decade and housing stock – a measure of new construction activity – nearly halved in the second quarter. “The property crash is the biggest problem [compared with the zero-COVID policy]said Craig Botham, China specialist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “The economy has shown it can recover quickly from lockdowns, but the damage from falling asset prices in a sector worth 30% of GDP is far more devastating. Households, banks and local governments all have damaged balance sheets.” China’s real estate developers have relied on advances to finance future real estate projects While refusing to unleash more monetary stimulus until inflation and the pandemic are under control, China’s central bank cut interest rates this week after industrial production and retail sales rose less than expected and oil demand fell 10%. annually in July.
China is cutting while the world is raising interest rates
“It’s the opposite of what’s happening everywhere else in the world where countries are raising their interest rates,” Guder told DW. “China has the opposite problems we have in the United States and Europe,” adding that Chinese consumers are afraid to spend for fear of being quarantined without income. Botham said the latest rate cuts are unlikely to make much of a difference to economic growth for two reasons. “One is that they will only directly affect banks’ funding costs, without requiring them to pass through to the real economy. The second, and more important, is that loan demand has fallen off the cliff. I suspect that the PBoC [People’s Bank of China] he felt he had to do something, even though he knows that whatever he does will have minimal impact,” he added. With the prospect of further stimulus on hold, the central government has sought to deflect attention from Beijing by telling regional governments to do more to help stabilize growth and boost job opportunities, which has been met with skepticism. “Local governments have balance sheets full of holes and can’t do much more,” warned Botham. “We need to see the central government step in. The Pantheon Macroeconomics analyst called for a shift from the supply side to the demand side. In May, Beijing announced 50 policy measures to help regions recover from lockdowns. They included tax breaks for businesses and consumers and other subsidies. Li this week visited the southern tech hub of Shenzhen on what he said was an economic fact-finding mission ahead of this month’s Politburo meeting.
Xi is under pressure to boost demand
Pressure has already mounted on China’s leaders after a state-run newspaper this week called for a front-page report on new pro-growth policies. Citing Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank, Financial News reported that Beijing should use more stimulus to boost demand. The paper also called for more industrial policies and measures to buy property, which it said would lead to a recovery in production and consumption. Resistance to a new stimulus could ease in the coming months as President Xi Jinping seeks re-election as Chinese leader at the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party. The summit, expected in November, according to Hong Kong newspaper Ming Pao, is likely to approve Xi’s third term. Unlike in 2008, when China’s 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion, 579 billion euros) of monetary stimulus helped stabilize the global economy, the impact of any future expansionary policies by Beijing is likely to be limited for the West, he said. Botham to DW. However, he said they could help ease the cost-of-living crisis plaguing development in the West. “It’s safe to say [China] it will not save the global economy in this cycle. Hopes for a new China-led commodity supercycle will be dashed. However, the focus on supply-side policies and weakness in Chinese demand will mean that China will export deflation and even deflation to the rest of the world over the next 12 months, helping to lower global inflation.” Editor: Hardy Graupner
